Possible thesis topic?

[threemonkeys]

Two unrelated events:
- A blown light bulb
- an episode of Studio 60 that I didn't really enjoy

These two events have got me thinking about mean time before failure (MTBF) for TV series engagement. How many episodes before somebody loses interest in a series. I don't mean how many episodes are made - that would be easier to determine. It is closer to how many episodes before an episode jumps the shark but it isn't that either really. It is the number of episodes you watch before you say "I'm bored with this". At that point you stop watching or worse, keep watching through habit without any real enjoyment.

I had a few thoughts for the potential researcher:
The value for any one series is not meaningful in the same way that the life of one light bulb isn't. You need to look across the TV show spectrum.

Each individual would have their own MTBF value. Everybody would have their own profile of TV watching. But you could calculate a MMTBF (mean MTBF). Then you could break those MMTBFs down by the usual demographic factors.

Of course a specific series would also have its own type of profile across all viewers, but that is closer to what ratings measure and therefore less interesting.

If you included all series the MTBF for an individual is probably very small. Obviously you would exclude all series never watched (that generates another statistic but lets ignore that). But then should you also include shows which never engage from first watching. I know I watch the first one or two episodes of a lot of shows but only a few are continued with. It is those continued ones that are of interest.

The distribution pattern would not be a common one. This is because the underlying population of episodes is not a continuous distribution. Season breaks and cancellations play a part here.

You could break things down further. Engagement with a TV series probably has more than one phase. For example - you could be initially attracted to the stories or the jokes. But over time you are watching for the characters only. Later you watch just out of habit. You could assign a value to each of these stages. If you could properly identify the stages that is.

Comments

[stephen-dedman.livejournal.com]

I find there are different stages of TV success/failure, especially now that so much TV goes to DVD and can be borrowed from the library. For example:

1. Won't miss an episode: will either schedule around it, or set VCR to record if I'm going to be out and then watch before next episode shows. Will even put up with commercials! (Buffy seasons 2-7, B5 seasons 2-5, Batman animated series; Heroes is shaping up to be the next)
2. As above, but only if it's on ABC (West Wing, Coupling, Doctor Who, Daria), or will borrow DVD (24, Deadwood, Sopranos), or might not always watch episode within a week (Six Feet Under).
3. Will watch if convenient, but won't bother setting VCR. (Numb3rs, SVU)
4. Watched first few episodes, will watch a few more waiting to see if it improves, then watch occasional episode if trailer looks good or friend recommends (ST: TNG, X-files, Smallville). I may become hooked later if those episodes are particularly good (Buffy, B5).

Of these, the last two seasons of B5 are probably the only ones which I kept watching mostly out of habit, hoping it would get back on track (I did like the finale). I have a sufficiently large library of DVDs and videos (including many TV series) that if a show ceases to hold my interest, I'll watch something else. Or read, or write, or web-surf, or play a computer game. TV has too much competition to get away with boring me.

[threemonkeys.livejournal.com]

Interesting. You are basically breaking down by stages of the intensity of engagement. I was thinking along the lines of the type of engagement, but your way works better. I can certainly break down the shows I watch into those categories (except of course that we don't have ABC over here). I wonder if downloading shows as soon as they become available is category 1 or is even more obsessive and thus demands a category 0.

Of course, this has just got me thinking about it when I had almost got it out of my head. ;-)

[stephen-dedman.livejournal.com]

Category 0 (for me) would be 'Watch repeats. Keep tapes or buy DVDs to facilitate watching repeats.' (Buffy, Coupling, ST:TOS, Hill Street Blues, The Muppet Show, etc).

[threemonkeys.livejournal.com]

Yes that works. Presumably shows like that start as category 1 and get a promotion at the end when you realise that you have to see them again. (and again and again and again in the case of Buffy).